Economist Noah Smith is the author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world.
Far from worrying about human extinction from superintelligent AI, Noah is optimistic AI will create a world where humans still have plentiful, high-paying jobs!
In this debate, I stress-test his rosy outlook. Let’s see if Noah can instill us with more confidence about humanity’s rapidly approaching AI future.
Timestamps
00:00:00 - Episode Preview
00:01:41 - Introducing Noah Smith
00:03:19 - What’s Your P(Doom)™
00:04:40 - Good vs. Bad Transhumanist Outcomes
00:15:17 - Catastrophe vs. Total Extinction
00:17:15 - Mechanisms of Doom
00:27:16 - The AI Persuasion Risk
00:36:20 - Instrumental Convergence vs. Peace
00:53:08 - The “One AI” Breakout Scenario
01:01:18 - The “Stoner AI” Theory
01:08:49 - Importance of Reflective Stability
01:14:50 - Orthogonality & The Waymo Argument
01:21:18 - Comparative Advantage & Jobs
01:27:43 - Wealth Distribution & Robot Lords
01:34:34 - Supply Curves & Resource Constraints
01:43:38 - Policy of Reserving Human Resources
01:48:28 - Closing: The Case for Optimism
Links
Noah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blog
“Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI” — https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the
“My thoughts on AI safety” — https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/my-thoughts-on-ai-safety
Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinion
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