The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 350. CRE's Yield Curve Conundrum, Residential Reality Check, Bank Transparency on Trial & Office Bright Spots
25 snips
Sep 5, 2025 Dive into the world of commercial real estate as the podcast examines the intriguing yield curve dynamics and the state of residential mortgage rates. Discover how recent banking rules might impact loan transparency and hear about notable property stories, including a potentially recovering loan in Manhattan. The discussion also highlights strong office leasing trends in New York City and a surge in AI-driven demand in San Francisco. Finally, get an inside look at major multifamily transactions and insights from the life insurance mortgage market.
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Steep Curve Limits Fixed‑Rate Relief
- The yield curve has steepened to the upper 50s–60 bps, limiting relief for long‑term fixed commercial debt even if the Fed cuts rates.
- That dynamic favors shorter fixed terms and a larger share of floating‑rate issuance in CRE financing.
Watch For A 5% Mortgage Rate Trigger
- Expect a meaningful pickup in single‑family transactions only when mortgage rates fall into the mid‑ to high‑five percent range.
- Monitor consumer mobility decisions, since rates near 5.0–5.5% will unlock move and trade‑up activity.
One Loan Can Swing Delinquency Rates
- A single $1+ billion office loan (1211 Avenue of the Americas) pushed office CMBS delinquencies sharply higher in August.
- That loan may be reclassified as current after a preliminary three‑year extension, showing how individual loans can swing headline rates.