Dangerous Waters – How the world shipping system became a new battleground
Apr 3, 2024
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Elisabeth Braw discusses Houthi attacks on global shipping, highlighting the Red Sea crisis's impact on supply chains. The podcast explores the rise of dark fleets, asymmetric warfare risks, and the need for systemic reform in maritime affairs. It delves into global rule-breaking, challenges to trade routes, and the economic implications of a Taiwan conflict on sea-based trade.
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea highlight the vulnerability of global supply chains to asymmetrical warfare.
Surplus shipping capacity post-COVID mitigates immediate disruptions but rerouting shipping around the Cape of Good Hope slows transport.
Deep dives
Operation Prosperity Guardian and Disruption in Global Trade Routes
Operation Prosperity Guardian has been initiated in response to the attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Yemeni Houthi militia, aiming to degrade the Houthis' offensive capabilities and secure the shipping route. Despite the attacks risking lives and causing economic disruption, the shipping industry has managed to circumvent major disruptions due to surplus shipping capacity post-COVID. The attacks highlight the asymmetrical warfare capabilities demonstrated by the Houthis with technology from Iran, posing new challenges and testing defense systems against land-based anti-ship missiles.
Impacts of Red Sea Attacks on Global Shipping
Disruption in the Red Sea by the Houthis initially raised concerns about significant disruptions to supply chains, but the pre-existing surplus shipping capacity post-COVID helped mitigate immediate disruptions. However, the need to reroute shipping around the Cape of Good Hope has slowed transport. This development underscores the increasing vulnerability of global supply chains to conflicts and highlights how technology from Iran is changing the dynamics of naval warfare.
Relevance of Asymmetrical Warfare and Houthi Attacks
The use of asymmetrical warfare by the Houthi militia, backed by Iranian technology, has showcased the impact of land-based anti-ship missiles on global shipping routes. This strategic partnership between the Houthis and Iran has allowed for a live test of missile technology with implications for potential naval conflicts. The attacks have provided the Houthis with increased relevance and potential leverage in global trade dynamics, signaling a shift towards exploiting conflicts for strategic gains.
Ripple Effects on Global Trade and Supply Chains
The attacks in the Red Sea have catalyzed shifts in global supply chains, leading companies to rethink their operational strategies through onshoring or nearshoring. Geopolitical tensions and conflicts like the war in Ukraine and US-China rivalry have accelerated these changes, urging companies to adapt to evolving trade dynamics. The reshaping of supply chains reflects a broader trend of de-globalization amidst rising authoritarianism and protectionist policies, challenging the foundation of established global trade systems.
Houthi attacks on shipping have thrown global supply lines into turmoil, and led 20 countries to intervene militarily. But the Red Sea logistics crisis is just the latest in series of shocks to the world trade system, from the Pandemic to Ukraine and beyond. What does it mean when any pirate with a missile and a TikTok account can hold domestic supplies to ransom? And who wants to take advantage?
Emma Beals speaks to Elisabeth Braw – senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative – and Bruce Jones, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, to discover the new conflict on the High Seas.
Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production