

Ep. 249: Mark Rzepczynski on Wicked Markets and Understanding Risk
31 snips Jan 3, 2025
Mark Rzepczynski, Managing Member and CEO of AMPHI Research and Trading, shares his 40 years of finance expertise, discussing the crucial balance between systematic and discretionary trading. He delves into the complexities of risk versus uncertainty and the challenges posed by financial models in turbulent markets. Highlighting risk premium strategies, he explores the importance of adapting to changing conditions. Rzepczynski also reflects on influential literature that enhances decision-making, stressing the value of intuition over conventional approaches.
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Career Journey
- Mark Rzepczynski's career began with a visit to the Chicago Board of Trade, sparking his interest in finance.
- He transitioned from academia back to trading, experiencing the 1987 crash, and held various roles at prominent firms.
Risk vs. Uncertainty
- Quantitative models can measure and manage countable risks, while uncertainty remains a challenge.
- Even the best financial models may only explain a small portion of market variation, necessitating a blend of quantitative and discretionary approaches.
Risk Premium Strategies
- Risk premium strategies are measurable and provide consistent results, but often viewed unconditionally.
- Deeper analysis reveals that carry trades, for example, perform differently based on conditions like volatility and central bank actions.