Retired US General Kevin Ryan discusses the possibility of Putin deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The podcast explores the indicators suggesting this scenario, the potential targets, and the extent of radiation damage. It also analyzes the US/NATO response and the need for preparedness. The discussion delves into the potential nuclear threat from Russia and the importance of adapting Western strategy in the face of this threat.
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Quick takeaways
Retired US General Kevin Ryan believes that Putin may resort to using a nuclear weapon if he feels he is losing the war in Ukraine and territories like Crimea are threatened.
In the event of a nuclear strike, Western nations should enhance their military readiness on a nuclear battlefield, improve medical support for affected civilians, and remain flexible in their policy responses.
Deep dives
The Likelihood of a Russian Nuclear Strike
Retired Brigadier General Kevin Ryan believes that a Russian nuclear strike is more likely than many in the West believe. He argues that if Putin feels he is losing the war in Ukraine, especially if territories like Crimea are being threatened, he may resort to using a nuclear weapon. Ryan points out indicators such as the command structure in Ukraine and Russia's withdrawal of civilians from certain areas as signs of increased readiness for such a scenario. He emphasizes the need for Western nations to prepare for the possibility of operating on a nuclear battlefield and to reconsider their policies in light of this threat.
Practical Implications and Policy Changes
If a nuclear strike were to occur, there would be severe localized damage in the targeted area, with casualties falling off beyond a five-mile radius. The US and NATO have stated they would not respond with a nuclear weapon, but would likely consider alternative measures, such as increased sanctions or support to Ukraine. Retired Brigadier General Ryan argues that Western nations should enhance their military readiness on a nuclear battlefield, improve medical support for affected civilians, and remain flexible in their policy responses should a nuclear strike occur.
Future Scenarios and NATO's Role
The safest medium-term outcome, according to Ryan, would be Ukraine regaining its territories either through military means or negotiation. He believes Russia would be willing to accept the status quo and a ceasefire, but Ukraine would not. In light of the increased nuclear threat, NATO leaders should begin thinking about their responses in a world where the use of nuclear weapons on a battlefield may no longer be unthinkable. NATO should consider how to adapt its strategies and policies to address this changing landscape.