A Productive Conversation

How To Decide with Annie Duke

10 snips
Jan 20, 2021
Annie Duke, former poker pro, discusses decision-making in her book. Topics include 'resulting', biases, and practical tools for better choices. She talks about chunking, mental models, and the impact of information warfare. The conversation also touches on reflecting biases, real-life examples, and beautiful plays in sports history.
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ANECDOTE

Super Bowl Interception

  • Pete Carroll's 2015 Super Bowl pass play is infamous for being intercepted.
  • This highlights the "resulting" problem: judging decisions solely on outcomes.
INSIGHT

Mental Models

  • Vivid examples and clear mental models enhance understanding and recall.
  • "Resulting" and "theming" are effective because they provide context and make concepts memorable.
ANECDOTE

Availability Bias

  • People overestimate shark attacks versus falling coconuts due to availability bias.
  • Vividness and recall influence our perception of frequency, not actual data.
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