"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg
E38: Resurgence of Prediction Markets, AI Adoption and Complex Financial Systems
Jul 25, 2024
This podcast discusses the resurgence of prediction markets, Biden's nomination odds, and the impact of AI on software economics. They also touch on the balance of sophisticated vs. 'dumb' money, the costs of unreliable software breaches, and the evolution of financial systems post the great financial crisis.
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Quick takeaways
- Prediction markets reflect public perceptions and require diverse participants.
- Local financial systems evolve for resilience, balancing redundancy and autonomy.
Deep dives
Evolution of Election Betting Markets
Before modern polling, elections were often bet upon, but this practice diminished over time due to regulatory and societal changes. However, with the complexity and uncertainty of modern polling methods, the return of election betting is on the rise. This resurgence is aided by the improvement in statistical analyses, wider confidence intervals, and the regulatory environment favoring prediction markets, adding a layer of unpredictability that attracts participants.
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