Resurgence and Evolution of Prediction Markets

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The chapter explores the resurgence of prediction markets and their evolution to offer a wider range of prop bets beyond major national races, highlighting insights provided by platforms like Polymarket and Manifold on predicting Biden's odds of being the nominee. It discusses the importance of continuously updating predictions, drawing parallels between Biden's situation and a bank run analogy, emphasizing the need for calm and strategic decision-making. The conversation also delves into the significance of prediction markets in gauging the true impact of headline news events and the advantage of insider information or data interpretation skills in these markets.

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the resurgence of prediction markets, the balance of sophisticated vs. 'dumb' money, Biden's nomination odds and the impact of AI on software economics.

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:20) Is this the Polymarket election?

(08:55) Prediction markets

(11:07) Politics and prediction markets