The Chart of Truth Is Turning | Rupert Mitchell on the Regime Change Investors Are Missing

Jan 22, 2026

Rupert Mitchell, known as 'Blind Squirrel,' is a macro-focused investor and writer with expertise in emerging markets and commodities. He dives into the shifting global macro landscape, discussing why US equity leadership may be losing strength after a long run. He highlights opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, driven by commodities rather than politics. Rupert also shares insights on China's unique market dynamics, emphasizing lower-beta investments and the technological advancements shaping the region.

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INSIGHT

US Leadership Showing Fatigue

US equities have dominated for 15 years but are showing signs of a durable relative downtrend versus international markets.
Rupert Mitchell positions for an emerging markets resurgence if the US outperformance continues to mean-revert.

INSIGHT

Duration Rotation Toward Real Assets

Market performance is correlating with shorter-duration cash flows and lower P/E sectors.
Rupert believes a rotation from long-duration software to real assets and short-duration businesses is starting to occur.

ADVICE

Favor Cash-Flows Over Distant Growth

Move exposure closer to cash flows by owning businesses with nearer-term earnings and tangible assets.
Favor short-duration, capital-intensive industries over SaaS-like long-duration names in this cycle.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfolio construction decisions that underpin his current outlook, with a focus on duration, cash flows, and real assets in a changing cycle.

Topics covered include:

Why US equity leadership is showing signs of fatigue after a decade-plus run
The case for emerging markets as a multi-year relative trade
Latin America as a commodity-driven opportunity rather than a political bet
Brazil, Mexico, and Peru through the lens of fiscal policy and real assets
Why India stands out as expensive within emerging markets
China’s equity market inflection and the role of domestic savings and fiscal support
The difference between onshore A-shares and offshore Chinese equities
Why Rupert prefers lower-beta, dividend-oriented exposure in China
How AI is being deployed differently in China versus the US
The risks facing enterprise software and long-duration growth assets
Portfolio construction, benchmarking, and managing drawdowns across cycles
How Rupert thinks about hedging, trend following, and capital preservation

Timestamps:
00:00 Macro market backdrop and early warning signals
01:00 Venezuela, oil, and why context matters more than headlines
04:40 The chart of truth and US versus international equities
07:00 Emerging markets relative performance and historical parallels
10:00 Duration risk, valuation, and the shift toward real assets
14:30 Mag 7 leadership, software weakness, and AI disruption
18:00 India valuations and the role of flows and derivatives
20:40 Latin America beyond politics: commodities and fiscal drivers
26:00 Brazil, Mexico, and country-level positioning
29:50 Benchmarking and why Latin America is a major overweight
32:10 China’s equity inflection and the ABC framework
36:00 Fiscal policy, buybacks, and domestic savings in China
41:00 Tencent versus Alibaba and managing drawdowns
44:30 AI capex discipline in China versus the US
46:00 Stock selection in China and second-derivative opportunities
51:00 Portfolio construction, benchmarks, and risk management
58:00 Blind Squirrel Macro, live shows, and ongoing research