Intro

In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfolio construction decisions that underpin his current outlook, with a focus on duration, cash flows, and real assets in a changing cycle.

Topics covered include:

• Why US equity leadership is showing signs of fatigue after a decade-plus run

• The case for emerging markets as a multi-year relative trade

• Latin America as a commodity-driven opportunity rather than a political bet

• Brazil, Mexico, and Peru through the lens of fiscal policy and real assets

• Why India stands out as expensive within emerging markets

• China’s equity market inflection and the role of domestic savings and fiscal support

• The difference between onshore A-shares and offshore Chinese equities

• Why Rupert prefers lower-beta, dividend-oriented exposure in China

• How AI is being deployed differently in China versus the US

• The risks facing enterprise software and long-duration growth assets

• Portfolio construction, benchmarking, and managing drawdowns across cycles

• How Rupert thinks about hedging, trend following, and capital preservation

Timestamps:
00:00 Macro market backdrop and early warning signals
01:00 Venezuela, oil, and why context matters more than headlines
04:40 The chart of truth and US versus international equities
07:00 Emerging markets relative performance and historical parallels
10:00 Duration risk, valuation, and the shift toward real assets
14:30 Mag 7 leadership, software weakness, and AI disruption
18:00 India valuations and the role of flows and derivatives
20:40 Latin America beyond politics: commodities and fiscal drivers
26:00 Brazil, Mexico, and country-level positioning
29:50 Benchmarking and why Latin America is a major overweight
32:10 China’s equity inflection and the ABC framework
36:00 Fiscal policy, buybacks, and domestic savings in China
41:00 Tencent versus Alibaba and managing drawdowns
44:30 AI capex discipline in China versus the US
46:00 Stock selection in China and second-derivative opportunities
51:00 Portfolio construction, benchmarks, and risk management
58:00 Blind Squirrel Macro, live shows, and ongoing research