Will the BOJ spoil the widely anticipated Santa Claus rally?

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In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities.

In this book, Daniel Kahneman takes readers on a tour of the mind, explaining how the two systems of thought shape our judgments and decisions. System 1 is fast, automatic, and emotional, while System 2 is slower, effortful, and logical. Kahneman discusses the impact of cognitive biases, the difficulties of predicting future happiness, and the effects of overconfidence on corporate strategies. He offers practical insights into how to guard against mental glitches and how to benefit from slow thinking in both personal and business life. The book also explores the distinction between the 'experiencing self' and the 'remembering self' and their roles in our perception of happiness.

In 'Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics,' Richard H. Thaler recounts his journey in challenging traditional economic theories that assume humans are rational actors. The book chronicles the evolution of behavioral economics, a field that integrates psychology and economics to understand how people actually make decisions. Thaler discusses various behavioral concepts such as endowment effects, mental accounting, and self-control issues, using anecdotes and empirical studies to illustrate these points. The book also delves into Thaler's personal struggles and successes in establishing behavioral economics as a recognized field, including his work with institutions like the British tax collection agency and his battles with traditional economic thinking.

In 'The (Mis)Behavior of Markets', Benoît Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson challenge conventional financial theories by applying fractal geometry to market dynamics. They argue that markets exhibit complex patterns and extreme events more frequently than traditional models predict, highlighting the importance of recognizing these patterns for better risk management. The book critiques the efficient market hypothesis and modern portfolio theory, advocating for a more nuanced approach to financial markets.

In 'Principles: Life and Work', Ray Dalio shares the principles he has developed over his career that have helped him achieve success. The book is divided into three sections: the first section explains how Dalio's principles were formed from his personal and professional experiences; the second section outlines life principles, such as embracing reality, being radically open-minded, and understanding the importance of pain and reflection in personal growth; and the third section focuses on work principles, including the use of radical truth and radical transparency to transform an organization. Dalio advocates for systematizing decision-making into algorithms, learning from failures, and building a culture where it is okay to make mistakes but unacceptable not to learn from them.

Inside the House of Money provides a rare glimpse into the world of hedge funds by interviewing several dozen top global macro hedge fund managers. The book, written by Steven Drobny, reveals the theories, strategies, and approaches these managers use to make billions for their investors. It captures the human forces of emotion and intuition that play a role in financial markets, alongside rationality. The updated edition includes new commentary and firsthand trading experiences through major world financial crises of the last few decades, making it a must-read for financial professionals and anyone interested in understanding global markets.

The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future based on a provocative theory of American history. The authors identify a distinct pattern where modern history moves in cycles, each lasting about the length of a long human life, composed of four twenty-year eras—or 'turnings'—that comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. The book offers bold predictions about how America’s past will predict what comes next, particularly focusing on the roles of Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials during times of upheaval.

In 'The Fourth Turning Is Here,' Neil Howe expands on his earlier theory of historical cycles, which posits that modern history moves in cycles lasting roughly 80 to 100 years, each cycle composed of four eras or 'turnings. ' The current era, the fourth turning, is characterized by polarization, civil conflict, and global tensions, but also holds the promise of a new golden age for America. The book delves into the collective personality of each living generation to make sense of the current crisis and explores how different generations will be affected by the upcoming political, social, and economic challenges. It also provides insights on how the country, communities, and families can prepare to meet these challenges.