The Best Ever CRE Show JF 4035: Rate Cuts, Retail Resilience and Recession-Ready Markets with John Chang
Sep 21, 2025
John Chang delves into the Fed's recent rate cut, suggesting it's spurred more by confidence than liquidity. He highlights the potential for lower rates to invigorate commercial real estate deal flow. Retail sales are thriving even amid inflation, thanks to manageable household leverage. Chang discusses how a mild recession could reshape market dynamics, pinpointing industry mix and overdevelopment risk as crucial filters. Plus, there's a demographic boost as millennials step into their peak earning years, promising a surge in consumption.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Rate Cut Fueled By Confidence Problem
- John Chang argues the rate cut addresses confidence more than liquidity or cost of capital.
- He calls the economy's main problem a "crisis of confidence," not lack of lending.
Dot Plot Signals Expectation Of Weaker Growth
- The Fed dot plot implies members foresee lower policy rates over the next few years.
- Chang reads that as an implicit belief the economy will weaken and require easier policy.
Political Pressure On The Fed Matters
- Chang says political pressure and personnel shifts are weighing on Fed independence.
- He suggests politics partly explain the timing and direction of recent rate moves.