On The Market

The “18-Year Real Estate Cycle” Ends in 2026 (What Now?)

21 snips
Jan 29, 2026
They dig into the claim that an 18-year real estate cycle predicts a 2026 crash. The conversation covers the cycle’s phases, historical evidence dating back to the 1800s, and objections like the 1925–1973 gap. They contrast nominal versus real prices and explain why 2008 was unique. Practical investing takeaways focus on recognizing cycles without treating 18 years as a precise law.
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INSIGHT

Origin And Claim Of The 18‑Year Cycle

  • The 18-year housing cycle theory claims recurring peaks and crashes driven by land scarcity and speculation.
  • It traced peaks from the 1800s and correctly anticipated major downturns, which gives the theory cultural traction.
INSIGHT

Phases Of The Proposed Cycle

  • The cycle is described in phases: recovery/affordability, building/expansion, mid-cycle dip, then speculative boom and eventual peak.
  • Proponents map these to roughly seven-year segments culminating in a crash around year 18.
INSIGHT

Why The Theory Persists

  • Fred Harrison and earlier economists traced repeating land-price peaks from 1818 through the 1800s, making accurate calls in 1990 and 2008.
  • That historical track record is why the theory resurfaces and gains media attention today.
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