Real versus nominal home prices

Dave emphasizes inflation-adjusted (real) prices show a plateau years earlier, making them better cycle indicators.

Play episode from 20:04

chevron_right

Transcript

chevron_right

Transcript

Episode notes

The 18-year real estate cycle calls for a crash in 2026. It correctly predicted the 2008 crash, it was right for decades in a row in the 1800s, and many say it’s the one true oracle for home prices.

Funnily enough, it’s been 18 years since 2008, and home prices are starting to peak.

But is there enough data to trust in this housing market cycle? Should you be selling your properties just shy of every 18 years to load up on low prices during the next predicted housing crash? Or, is this just a conveniently (somewhat) accurate theory that crash bros use to get maximum clicks?

Today, Dave is reviewing the evidence and sharing the cases from economists on whether the 18-year cycle exists. The theory calls for a crash worse than 2008 this year, but is there any evidence to support this claim? You might be surprised, but Dave does agree with parts of this theory.

In This Episode We Cover

2026 housing crash? Why the 18-year real estate cycle says we’re at the end of an era

The “phases” of the real estate cycle explained (from bust to boom)

Did the cycle end? Why home prices may have already peaked years ago

2008 vs. 2026: What could cause a housing crash to happen this year

The (surprisingly) accurate 18-year predictions for decades in a row

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area