Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital and a renowned investor, shares insights from his impressive career in finance. He discusses the importance of a well-defined investment philosophy and the unpredictability of human behavior. Marks emphasizes the necessity of effective risk management, viewing it as a strategy to engage with uncertainty rather than avoid it. He also dives into contrarian investing, encouraging aspiring investors to challenge market norms and embrace mentorship. Tune in for a treasure trove of investment wisdom!
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Marks' Investment Philosophy
Prioritize risk control and aim for consistent returns, slightly above average.
Specialize deeply in a few less efficient markets and avoid relying on macro forecasts or market timing.
insights INSIGHT
Limits of Knowledge
Randomness significantly impacts investment outcomes; good decisions can fail, and bad ones can succeed.
Acknowledge the limits of knowledge, especially when dealing with unpredictable human behavior in markets.
insights INSIGHT
Judging Decisions
Evaluate decisions based on the process, not solely on outcomes, due to randomness.
Short-term success can be due to luck, but long-term success requires skill.
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the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
In 'Fooled by Randomness', Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses the pervasive influence of chance and randomness in our lives and financial markets. The book argues that humans tend to underestimate the role of luck and overestimate the role of skill, leading to biases such as hindsight bias, survivorship bias, and the narrative fallacy. Taleb emphasizes the importance of recognizing and coping with uncertainty, and he critiques the tendency to seek deterministic explanations for random events. The book is part of Taleb's Incerto series, which also includes 'The Black Swan', 'The Bed of Procrustes', 'Antifragile', and 'Skin in the Game'.
Mastering the market cycle
Getting the Odds on Your Side
Howard Marks
In 'Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side,' Howard Marks provides a comprehensive overview of market cycles, emphasizing the importance of understanding the patterns of ups and downs influenced by economics, markets, companies, and human psychology. Marks draws on his decades of experience to explain how investors can position their portfolios to take advantage of market cycles by studying past cycles, understanding their origins, and remaining alert for the next cycle. The book highlights that market cycles are driven by cause-and-effect relationships and that investors should prepare rather than predict market outcomes. It also delves into the psychological markers and emotional factors that influence investor behavior during different phases of the cycle.
Thinking in bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Annie Duke
In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes. She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias. Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions. The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making[1][3][5].
Security Analysis
Benjamin Graham
David L. Dodd
First published in 1934, Security Analysis is a seminal work in the field of finance that lays the intellectual foundation for value investing. The book, written by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd, distinguishes between investing and speculating, emphasizes the importance of thorough financial analysis, and introduces key concepts such as the 'margin of safety.' The sixth edition includes commentary from leading Wall Street money managers and a foreword by Warren E. Buffett, who has praised the book for its enduring relevance in modern markets.
How can you judge the quality of a decision? Howard Marks is the co-founder of Oaktree Capital and one of the world's most respected investors. In this episode he tells us about how he got started in finance, his investment philosophy, his thoughts on risk management and much more. Tune in for an insightful conversation with one of the greatest minds in the world of finance.
In Good Company is hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. New episode out every Wednesday.
The production team for this episode includes PLAN-B's Pål Huuse and Niklas Figenschau Johansen. Background research was conducted by Kristian Haga.