Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Jul 1, 2024

Ernie Tedeschi, former White House economist, discusses political risks to US safe harbor premium, benefits of full employment, and trends in R-star. Topics include labor market metrics, soft landings in inflation, and implications of R-star movements on monetary policy. Ernie highlights the importance of productivity growth and efficient taxation for economic sustainability.

59:05

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Episode guests

Ernie Tedeschi

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

The benefits of a high employment economy include healing properties and improved labor market measures.

Interpreting economic data accurately and independently is crucial, especially in high-pressure environments like the White House.

Political risks, such as debt dynamics and fiscal dominance, pose challenges to economic policy and interest rates.

Deep dives

CEA Experience and Leadership

Ernie Tedeschi recounts his time at the White House's Council of Economic Advisors, highlighting the exceptional people involved, including senior academics and government economists. Working closely with leaders like C. C. Rouse and Jared Bernstein was a rewarding and enriching experience that defined his tenure.

Intro

4min

A Day at the Council of Economic Advisers

11min

Analyzing Measures of the Labor Market in Full Employment

3min

Debate on Soft Landings, Vacancies Measurement, and Supply Side Influence on Inflation

5min

Political Risk and the US Economy

19min

Understanding R-star and its Implications on Monetary Policy

14min

Discussing the Positive Impact of Increased Productivity and Higher R-Star

2min

Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie’s favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Ernie’s Twitter: @ernietedeschi

Ernie’s Budget Lab profile

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

CEA Experience and Leadership

Daily Operations at CEA

Critical Economic Reports

Dealing with Economic Data

Political Risks and Economic Policy

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts