Macro Musings with David Beckworth

In this discussion, guest Samim Ghamami, a former SEC economist, dives deep into the U.S. fiscal trajectory and its implications for interest rates and inflation. He highlights how rising public debt and demographic shifts challenge financial stability. Ghamami also explores how trade wars and corporate investment strategies affect long-term interest rates. The conversation wraps up with proposed Treasury market reforms and the critical need for a balanced budget to ensure economic resilience.

Jerry Dwyer, a professor emeritus at Clemson and senior fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, shares insights on the evolution of free banking. He reflects on his mentorship under Milton Friedman and discusses the historical context of banking in the U.S. Dwyer explores how stablecoins are shaped by blockchain technology and contrasts their regulatory differences across states. He also highlights the potential risks posed by quantum computing to cryptocurrency security and considers the future implications for Bitcoin and digital currencies.

Hester Peirce, a commissioner at the SEC and member of its crypto task force, discusses her unique career path and the evolving landscape of financial regulation. She delves into the complexities of financial privacy in a tech-driven world and critiques current financial surveillance practices. Hester explores the challenges regulators face with cryptocurrencies, the need for clear legislative frameworks, and the importance of dissent in fostering effective regulatory practices. Her insights pave the way for a balanced approach to innovation and investor protection.

In this engaging conversation, Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, revisits critical economic themes. He discusses the evolving status of the U.S. dollar amidst recent market fluctuations and fiscal dominance issues stemming from the pandemic. Robin dives into the complexities of the trade war, deglobalization, and how geopolitical tensions influence economic strategies. He also highlights the importance of political will in responding to sanctions against authoritarian regimes.

Aditi Sahasrabuddhe, a political scientist at Brown University and author of Banker’s Trust, delves into the pivotal role of relationships among central bankers. She reveals how these connections shaped the economy in the 1920s and contributed to the Great Depression. Aditi highlights the 'Central Bank Club' and its impact on crisis management, referencing key figures like Benjamin Strong. The discussion extends to Japan's post-war recovery and emphasizes the ongoing importance of trust and collaboration in navigating today's economic challenges.

Will Luther, an associate professor at Florida Atlantic University and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, joins Josh Hendrickson, chair of the economics department at the University of Mississippi and also a fellow at BPI. They discuss the concept of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and its implications for U.S. monetary policy. The duo explores Bitcoin’s potential to challenge U.S. financial hegemony and enhance stability amid volatility. They also dive into innovative financial products linked to Bitcoin, highlighting its evolving role in global finance.

Rashad Ahmed is an economist at the Andresen Institute for Finance and Economics, previously engaging with the Treasury and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. He discusses the global ramifications of U.S. stablecoin regulation, highlighting how it could reshape international financial systems and trade. Ahmed also dives into cryptocurrency adoption trends among G20 nations, revealing links between sovereign risk and crypto uptake. The conversation is rich with insights into how stablecoins could influence macroeconomic dynamics worldwide.

Paul Kupiec, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former expert at the FDIC and the Fed, shares his insights on the Fed's balance sheet challenges. He discusses the substantial insolvency of the Fed and explores theories for rectifying this financial quagmire. Kupiec also delves into Ted Cruz's controversial proposal to end interest on reserves, and the implications of the Fed's unique accounting methods. His experience in finance provides a compelling backdrop to this critical analysis of current monetary policy.

George Hall, a Brandeis University economics professor and former Chicago Fed economist, discusses the fiscal aftermath of the U.S. response to COVID-19. He highlights the rising national debt and its implications for future deficits. Hall delves into the relationship between inflation and fiscal policies, drawing parallels with historical crises like World War II. The conversation also addresses challenges in managing taxpayer concerns and the potential impacts of the Federal Reserve’s strategies. His insights reveal the delicate balance between modern fiscal demands and economic stability.

Ben Harris, vice president at the Brookings Institution and former Treasury official, dives into the U.S. government's fiscal health. He addresses the rising primary deficit and critiques the Big Beautiful Bill, discussing its implications on the national debt. Ben also explores how stablecoins and AI could offer innovative solutions to economic challenges. He shares insights on the unpredictability of debt dynamics, the significance of the debt ceiling, and the interplay between inflation and government spending, all while reflecting on his love for basketball.