Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Lukasz Rachel, a former Bank of England economist and current assistant professor at University College London, dives into the nuances of modern macroeconomic policy. He examines secular stagnation and its impact on R-star, revealing how demographic and public-sector trends shape interest rates. Lukasz also discusses non-Ricardian fiscal policy, arguing that it complicates monetary dynamics and can lead to inflation. He emphasizes the need for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to tackle these challenges effectively.

Tara Sinclair, a professor and chair at George Washington University and former U.S. Treasury official, dives into her innovative work on simulating Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings using AI. She discusses the significance of public economic data, the potential of AI in reshaping forecasting roles, and the creation of simulated FOMC personas, reflecting real committee dynamics. Insights on institutional design experiments and the implications of AI for monetary policy are also highlighted, showcasing a future where AI informs economic strategies.

Bryan Cutsinger, a monetary historian and assistant professor at Florida Atlantic University, dives deep into the dynamics of deflation and its historical context. He discusses the nuances between supply-driven and demand-driven deflation, highlighting how the latter can harm markets. Cutsinger draws parallels to the postbellum U.S. era, showcasing how strong economic growth persisted alongside deflation. The conversation also explores the potential of AI to spark productivity, while proposing reforms to help workers navigate these changes.

Will Roberds, an economist emeritus at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Steve Quinn, a professor at Texas Christian University, dive into the fascinating history of the Bank of Amsterdam. They unveil the secrets of centuries-old ledgers, revealing how this early institution pioneered concepts like repo operations and active open market transactions. The discussion connects historical practices to today's central banking, exploring the impact of Amsterdam on global finance, stability, and wartime economics, while also highlighting lessons for contemporary monetary policy.

Jim Clouse, a veteran of the Federal Reserve with 36 years of experience, shares insights on pivotal moments in U.S. monetary history. He discusses the Fed’s evolution during crises like Y2K, 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, and the COVID pandemic. Clouse examines the stigma around the discount window, critiques proposals to end interest on reserves, and explains the transition to increased transparency at the Fed. He also explores the implications of stablecoins and cashless payments on currency demand and Fed operations.

In this discussion, Manmohan Singh, a former IMF official and expert in financial markets, explores whether money still matters in today's economy. He examines the implications of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and their regulation, revealing how it could reshape the financial landscape. Singh delves into the role of stablecoins in the Eurodollar market, shares insights on collateral shortages, and debates the future of banks versus fintechs. He also discusses how stablecoins might challenge central banks' control over money and the potential impacts on emerging markets.

Raphael Bostic, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, shares his unique perspective on central banking. He discusses how birding fosters focus and humility in policymaking. Bostic also delves into the Atlanta Fed's tools for real-time economic analysis and the implications of the 2025 Fed framework revision. Inflation and its persistence are major concerns, alongside the impacts of AI on labor and housing mobility. Plus, he offers insights on fiscal pressures and the resilience of the treasury market.

Join Jon Hartley, a macroeconomist and scholar at the Mercatus Center, as he dives into the legacy of economist John Taylor and his pivotal contributions to monetary policy. Hartley discusses the recent Hoover Monetary Conference, the impact of the Taylor Rule, and why central banks should adopt his new measure of R-star. He also analyzes the U.S. Treasury's shift towards short-term debt management and explores the implications for government interest costs and fiscal resilience. A fascinating exploration of macroeconomic insights!

In this engaging discussion, Marc Giannoni, the chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital and former central banker, dives into the intricacies of the Fed's 2020 Framework Review. He highlights critical issues surrounding Fed independence and the dangers of fiscal dominance. Marc elucidates his research on r-star, explaining its decline amidst shifting demographics and productivity trends. He also examines whether monetary policy has become more or less effective, challenging common perceptions with insights from his influential work.

In this discussion, guest Samim Ghamami, a former SEC economist, dives deep into the U.S. fiscal trajectory and its implications for interest rates and inflation. He highlights how rising public debt and demographic shifts challenge financial stability. Ghamami also explores how trade wars and corporate investment strategies affect long-term interest rates. The conversation wraps up with proposed Treasury market reforms and the critical need for a balanced budget to ensure economic resilience.