19min chapter

Macro Musings with David Beckworth cover image

Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

CHAPTER

Political Risk and the US Economy

The chapter explores the concept of political risk in the United States and how it impacts the economy, including the country's GDP, investment, and capital stock. It discusses the factors contributing to the US Safe Harbor Premium, term premium, and the potential scenarios of political risks escalating, such as a debt ceiling crisis. The conversation also delves into concerns of fiscal dominance, Federal Reserve independence, and the sustainability of the US debt trajectory, emphasizing the importance of efficient taxation and fiscal discipline.

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