Unusual Whales

Unusual Whales Pod Ep. 35: First FOMC of 2024, Treasury Balance Sheets, Rate Cuts, and Macroeconomic Outlook

Feb 1, 2024

Macroeconomic experts discuss the FOMC, potential rate hikes, Fed/Treasury Balance Sheets, and the macroeconomic outlook for early 2024. They analyze the prospect of a soft landing, market volatility and rate cuts, leverage loan defaults and corporate debt, impact of de-globalization and protectionism on global conflicts, risks of a strong US economy, volatility insights and outlook, and market trends.

01:30:11

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Quick takeaways

Premature rate cuts may harm the economy and lead to higher inflation.

Structural factors like de-globalization and wealth redistribution are significant drivers of inflation.

Bond yields, stock performance, and home prices are interconnected and can influence each other as long as bond yields remain stable.

Deep dives

The potential for a premature rate-cutting cycle

Michael Cowell raises concerns about the potential negative impact of an aggressive and premature rate-cutting cycle. He believes that such a move by the Fed could harm the economy and lead to higher inflation. He also points out that the market is already pricing in more rate cuts than the Fed's projections, which he sees as unnecessary.

Introduction

2min

Introduction of 'last bear' and Bob Elliott, and discussion about the upcoming conversation

2min

Analyzing the Prospect of a Soft Landing

18min

Volatility in the Market and Rate Cuts

28min

Leverage Loan Defaults, Corporate Debt, and the Conundrum for Central Banks

2min

Impact of De-globalization and Protectionism on Global Conflicts and Fiscal Policy

7min

Risks of Strong US Economy and Impact on Other Countries

20min

Volatility Insights and Outlook for the Future

4min

Closing Remarks and Market Trends

7min

This episode of Unusual Whales Pod was recorded live on January 31st, 2024. Our Hosts are joined by Macroeconomic experts to discuss the continued rate pause, potential future rate hikes, the Fed/Treasury Balance Sheets, and the overall macroeconomic outlook for early 2024.

Panel:

Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

Michael Kao https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy

Thelastbearstanding https://twitter.com/LastBearStandng

Bob Elliott https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited

Cem Karsan https://twitter.com/jam_croissant

Hosted by:

Nicholas FNS: https://twitter.com/NicholasFNS

Unusual Whales: https://twitter.com/unusual_whales

This Pod is not financial advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do research before any trade. Do not use this information for financial decisions or for investing. You should consult your legal or tax professional regarding your specific situation.

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