Best of the Spectator Coffee House Shots: John Curtice on the local elections
Apr 26, 2025
John Curtice, a legendary pollster and professor, joins political editor James Heale to discuss the upcoming local elections in the UK. They explore the potential for a multi-party system, where parties like Reform UK and the Greens are gaining traction. Curtice highlights that even a small number of seats carries significant political weight. He suggests that we might witness the rise of new political dynamics, as successful contests by Reform could signal a shift away from the traditional two-party landscape.
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Significance of Small Local Elections
- Local elections involve small numbers of seats but hold big political significance.
- They may confirm a shift from a two-party to a multi-party system with Reform posing a major threat.
Five-Party Dynamics in Local Elections
- Five parties may be relatively equal in local elections despite the first-past-the-post system.
- Winners of votes may differ from winners of seats, creating unpredictability in results.
Decline of Two-Party System
- The two-party system has declined significantly since the 1960s, possibly being replaced by a multi-party system.
- Unlike the 1920s, this new system may involve five competing parties rather than a Labour-Liberal shift.