Election Dynamics: Runcorn and Reform's Challenges

Legendary pollster Prof Sir John Curtice joins the Spectator’s deputy political editor James Heale to look ahead to next week’s local elections. The actual number of seats may be small, as John points out, but the political significance could be much greater. If polling is correct, Reform could win a ‘fresh’ by-election for the first time, the mayoralties could be shared between three or more parties, and we could see a fairly even split in terms of vote share across five parties (Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives, the Green party, and Reform UK). 

The 2024 general election saw five GB-wide parties contest most seats for the first time. These set of local elections could solidify this ‘five-party political system'. In fact, says John, ‘Reform have already won these local elections’ by virtue of being able to contest all the seats available. Are we headed for a different kind of politics in Britain?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.