Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth Is Ecommerce Finally Rebounding? Here’s What the Data Says.
Oct 30, 2025
Steve ReCook, the Chief Data Scientist at Common Thread Collective, shares insights on ecommerce trends and consumer sentiment. He reveals that while ecommerce revenue has surged by 10% year over year, consumer confidence is declining. The discussion highlights the importance of returning customers in driving growth, the paradox of increased spending despite economic pessimism, and how brands can leverage consumer confidence data for better forecasting. Steve emphasizes the need for brands to adjust their strategies based on evolving consumer sentiment.
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Returning Customers Fuel Recent Growth
- Total ecommerce revenue is up about 10% year-over-year and returning customer revenue is rising faster.
- Returning customers are driving recent growth, especially in mid-October onward.
Mature Brands Rely On Existing Files
- Brands lean into returning customers when new customer acquisition becomes harder in October.
- Larger, matured brands naturally see more returning-customer-driven revenue growth.
Purchase Intent Rises Despite Tepid Economy Views
- Economic sentiment about the future is softer than early 2025 but still stronger than 2023.
- Despite that, future purchase intent for October hit the highest level in three years.