Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Show with Soroush Pour

Ep 13 - AI researchers expect AGI sooner w/ Katja Grace (Co-founder & Lead Researcher, AI Impacts)

Jun 19, 2024

Katja Grace from AI Impacts discusses AI researchers' revised timelines, with views on AGI risks and benefits. Survey methodology, response rates, and concerns about AI-induced human extinction. Exploring evolving perspectives in AI, varying opinions on AGI progress speed and risks. Emphasizing AI safety research, potential impacts on society, and the need for informed policy decisions.

01:20:28

Episode guests

Katja Grace

AI Summary

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

AI researchers predicting earlier arrival of AGI capabilities

Importance of AI safety measures and regulations to align with human values

Growing consensus on prioritizing safety research in AI development

Deep dives

Researchers Are Concerned About the Impacts of Advanced AI Systems

Over 3,000 AI researchers at top conferences expressed growing concerns about the pace of AI progress and the potential impacts on society. More than half of respondents predict negative outcomes, including a 5% or higher chance of extremely bad scenarios, such as human extinction.

Intro

2min

Exploring Perspectives on AI Research and Future Impacts

14min

Exploring Response Rates and Biases in Emailed Surveys

2min

Perception of AI Impact Organization and Email Framing

2min

Survey Methodology and Response Rates

2min

Survey Results and Perceptions on AI-Induced Human Extinction

9min

AI Researchers' Varying Perspectives on AGI Risks and Progress Speed

14min

Evolving Perspectives in AI: Trends, Risks, and Safety Research

12min

Exploring AI Futures

7min

10.

Risks and Responsibilities in Knowledge Creation

16min

We speak with Katja Grace. Katja is the co-founder and lead researcher at AI Impacts, a research group trying to answer key questions about the future of AI — when certain capabilities will arise, what will AI look like, how it will all go for humanity.

We talk to Katja about:

* How AI Impacts latest rigorous survey of leading AI researchers shows they've dramatically reduced their timelines to when AI will successfully tackle all human tasks & occupations.
* The survey's methodology and why we can be confident in its results
* Responses to the survey
* Katja's journey into the field of AI forecasting
* Katja's thoughts about the future of AI, given her long tenure studying AI futures and its impacts

Hosted by Soroush Pour. Follow me for more AGI content:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/soroushjp
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/soroushjp/

== Show links ==

-- Follow Katja --

* Website: https://katjagrace.com/
* Twitter: https://x.com/katjagrace

-- Further resources --

* The 2023 survey of AI researchers views: https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai
* AI Impacts: https://aiimpacts.org/
* AI Impacts' Substack: https://blog.aiimpacts.org/
* Joe Carlsmith on Power Seeking AI: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353
* Abbreviated version: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/03/22/existential-risk-from-power-seeking-ai-shorter-version
* Fragile World hypothesis by Nick Bostrom: https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf

Recorded Feb 22, 2024

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Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Show with Soroush Pour

Ep 13 - AI researchers expect AGI sooner w/ Katja Grace (Co-founder & Lead Researcher, AI Impacts)

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Researchers Are Concerned About the Impacts of Advanced AI Systems

Knowledge Creation and Distribution Are Essential in AI Research

Evolution of Views on AI Safety and Progress

Challenges of Speed in Technology Advancement

Future Preparedness and Adaptability in Careers

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts