AI Researchers' Varying Perspectives on AGI Risks and Progress Speed

We speak with Katja Grace. Katja is the co-founder and lead researcher at AI Impacts, a research group trying to answer key questions about the future of AI — when certain capabilities will arise, what will AI look like, how it will all go for humanity.

We talk to Katja about:

* How AI Impacts latest rigorous survey of leading AI researchers shows they've dramatically reduced their timelines to when AI will successfully tackle all human tasks & occupations.
* The survey's methodology and why we can be confident in its results
* Responses to the survey
* Katja's journey into the field of AI forecasting
* Katja's thoughts about the future of AI, given her long tenure studying AI futures and its impacts

Hosted by Soroush Pour. Follow me for more AGI content:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/soroushjp
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/soroushjp/

== Show links ==

-- Follow Katja --

* Website: https://katjagrace.com/
* Twitter: https://x.com/katjagrace

-- Further resources --

* The 2023 survey of AI researchers views: https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai
* AI Impacts: https://aiimpacts.org/
* AI Impacts' Substack: https://blog.aiimpacts.org/
* Joe Carlsmith on Power Seeking AI: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353
  * Abbreviated version: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/03/22/existential-risk-from-power-seeking-ai-shorter-version
* Fragile World hypothesis by Nick Bostrom: https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf

Recorded Feb 22, 2024