Plain English with Derek Thompson Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Next Great Quarterback?
Apr 29, 2022
David Berri, an economist at Southern Utah University, unpacks the baffling world of predicting NFL quarterbacks. He argues that scouts often miss the mark, revealing the chaos behind hiring decisions. The conversation delves into why even talented players, like Tom Brady, can be overlooked due to context and team dynamics. Berri challenges traditional metrics, stressing that success relies more on collective effort than just individual talent. Prepare for a deep dive into the unpredictability of talent evaluation in football!
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Draft Position vs. Performance
- Draft position predicts a quarterback's playing time opportunity.
- It does not, however, predict their actual per-play performance in the NFL.
Context Matters for Quarterbacks
- Quarterback performance is highly dependent on the team's context, like supporting players and coaching.
- The myth of a quarterback single-handedly transforming a team is unrealistic.
Irrelevant Combine Metrics
- The NFL combine uses metrics like Wonderlic tests and hand size, which are irrelevant to QB performance.
- These metrics often distract from actual on-field skills and game intelligence.