The Mystery of Predicting Quarterback Talent in the NFL

This week we have the NFL draft, which is an annual exercise in failure. Every year, some NFL team makes a disastrous quarterback decision but also overlooks a potential star. Why is it so damn hard to predict QB play in football? Are scouts stupid, or is the future just unknowable, or is hiring fundamentally chaotic, or is there something specific about quarterbacking that makes it uniquely difficult to forecast? The economist David Berri joins to share his research on why scouts are terrible at evaluating quarterbacks. His ideas shed light on larger questions like "What is talent, exactly?" and "Does anybody know what they're doing when they're hiring somebody for a new role?"

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Berri

Producer: Devon Manze

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