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Forward Guidance
Jim Bianco, Mark Yusko, & Jurrien Timmer on Real Interest Rates, Banking System, and Crypto (Panel at Permissionless 2023)
Sep 18, 2023
Jim Bianco, Mark Yusko, & Jurrien Timmer discuss whether macro will be a headwind or tailwind for crypto, impact of real interest rates, future of banking system, possibility of a recession in 2024, and final verdict on macro's influence on crypto.
40:33
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Quick takeaways
- The reversal of favorable macro conditions, such as negative real rates and loose monetary policy, has become a headwind for crypto, impacting its adoption and value.
- Unlike traditional assets, crypto assets like Bitcoin are driven by factors such as millennial adoption, technology development, regulatory changes, and monetary policies, providing a degree of independence from traditional markets.
Deep dives
Macro's Impact on Crypto: A Headwind for Adoption
The speakers discuss how the macroeconomic environment has shifted, affecting the adoption and value of cryptocurrencies. Previously, the favorable macro conditions, such as negative real rates and loose monetary policy, supported the growth of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, the reversal of these conditions, with the Fed tightening monetary policy and real rates turning positive, has become a headwind for crypto. Higher interest rates and competition from traditional financial instruments, offering returns like 5.5%, impact the attractiveness of crypto investments. The current higher real rates and uncertainty regarding the Fed's future actions pose challenges to the adoption and value of crypto in the coming months.
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