What's Next For Markets

Understanding Mortgage Finance With Crispin Love

Feb 1, 2026
Crispin Love, a Senior Analyst at Piper Sandler who covers mortgage finance and asset managers, breaks down recent mortgage rate moves and why rate changes matter more than levels. He walks through refinance versus purchase dynamics, data sources to watch, the comeback of HELOCs and closed-end seconds, industry adaptations to thinner margins, policy levers, and his 2026 outlook with favored mortgage names.
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INSIGHT

Rate-of-Change Drives Mortgage Activity

  • Mortgage markets respond strongly to the rate of change in rates, not just absolute levels.
  • Originations can grow even at 6% if rates fall from higher levels and create momentum.
INSIGHT

Refis Rebounded; Purchases Lag

  • Refinance volume has rebounded sharply from a very low base and is up roughly 100% year-over-year.
  • Purchase activity remains constrained by affordability and housing supply despite improving refi trends.
ADVICE

Use Monthly GSE And MBA Forecasts

  • Track Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association monthly origination forecasts to monitor activity.
  • Compare month-to-month forecast revisions and seasonality to spot momentum shifts.
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