Marketplace Why the Fed is thinking about immigration
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Dec 11, 2025 
In this discussion, Adam Posen, an economist and president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, dives into the cooling U.S.-China trade tensions, explaining how mutual disengagement has shaped recent relations. Elizabeth Troval highlights how falling immigration alters labor-force calculations, complicating the Fed’s assessments of job health. Meanwhile, Amy Scott showcases an innovative AI-driven recycling system that enhances recovery rates, demonstrating a tech-savvy approach to environmental sustainability.
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Immigration Alters Job-Market Benchmarks
- Falling immigration changes the baseline for healthy job growth because fewer new job seekers reduce the number of hires needed to keep unemployment steady.
- That shift can make months with small or negative payrolls look acceptable without signaling a recession.
Immigration Cuts Both Supply And Demand
- Immigration affects both labor supply and consumer demand because immigrants are workers and buyers of goods and services.
- Reduced immigration therefore lowers employers' demand for hiring as well as the pool of available workers.
Sino‑U.S. Relations Return To Temperate Tone
- U.S.-China relations have cooled to a more temperate, sustainable state after recent diplomatic engagement.
- Trade flows reflect China's domestic weakness more than aggressive U.S. leverage.