Global Data Pod Weekender: So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Jul 12, 2024
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Economic experts Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton discuss moderating inflation, potential rate cuts, and growth confidence. They delve into global inflation trends, central bank policies, labor market pressures, and equity market outlook. The podcast also touches on China's economic challenges and upcoming data releases.
Domestic conditions outweigh Fed easing for EM, showcasing unique policy decisions based on regional economic nuances.
Deep dives
US Core CPI Print and Central Bank Path
The main event focused on the fall in the US core CPI print alongside real-time testimonies. Questions arose on the challenge to sticky inflation highs and the impact on central bank calls and paths. The trend of lower inflation over a few months globally was highlighted, along with implications for central bank confidence.
Inflation Trends and Labor Market Pressures
The discussion delved into downshifting inflation trends, particularly in the US, amidst varying global patterns. Emphasis was placed on labor market factors, like easing wage inflation and lower shelter costs, influencing the inflation narrative. The evolving macro outlook, including indicators like strong job and wage growth, was underscored in determining future inflation trajectories.
Domestic Considerations and Central Bank Policies
Domestic macro conditions were highlighted as key drivers of central bank policies globally. While Fed easing set a tone for potential adjustments, individual economies weighed unique factors like leverage and growth for policy decisions. Regional differences in inflation outcomes across Asia, Europe, and Latin America showcased the nuance in central banks' responses to domestic economic contexts.
Inflation over the past two months has moderated across many economies, a welcome relief that challenges our sticky inflation call. However, increasing confidence in growth suggests that even if rate cutting cycles are seeing a green light to commence, the easing path could still be shallower than expected. Spillovers from Fed easing do not outweigh domestic conditions in the EM.