Unholy: Two Jews on the News Can you trust the polls? with Dahlia Scheindlin
Oct 13, 2026
Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli pollster, political strategist, and Haaretz analyst, unpacks Israel’s conflicting election polls. She explores why most surveys agree, who remains undecided, the risks facing small parties, turnout surprises, expat voters, and why October 7 barely shifted long-term political trends. The conversation ends with six opposition leaders holding the keys to the next government.
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Most Israeli Polls Agree More Than They Appear
- Six of eight Israeli pollsters show remarkably consistent long-term trends, while two right-wing pollsters remain persistent outliers.
- Channel 14 and I-24 once projected 66–67 coalition seats; their later decline has brought them closer to mainstream estimates.
The Electoral Threshold Makes Small Parties Decisive
- Only a small share of voters remains genuinely undecided after pollsters ask which side they lean toward.
- Threshold battles involving tiny parties still create major uncertainty because falling below 3.25% turns expected seats into zero.
Trust Polling Trends More Than Individual Numbers
- Use larger internal or special-purpose surveys to study small demographic groups and cross-tabulations.
- Treat repeated trends across many polls as more reliable than any single 500-person media survey.
