Two weeks before Israel votes, the polls seem to be telling two different stories — Channel 14 has the Netanyahu bloc at 63 seats, Channel 12 has it at 49. Dahlia Scheindlin, pollster and senior analyst at Haaretz, who has advised nine Israeli election campaigns, tells Yonit and Jonathan the picture is far less wild than it looks. Why do six of eight pollsters agree while two keep drifting? Who is actually still undecided, and does the much-discussed wave of expats flying in to vote amount to anything? Why have October 7 and everything since barely moved an electorate that has been shifting one way for fifteen years? And what is the iron rule that lets a pollster name your vote before you know it yourself — in an election whose result, she argues, now rests in the minds of six men.
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