Global Data Pod Weekender: I wanna take you higher
Apr 19, 2024
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Economist Bruce Kasman and financial analyst Joseph Lupton discuss the potential for stronger global GDP growth, implications for inflation, and central bank reactions. Topics include surpassing first-quarter GDP trends, economic resilience, growth forecasts, inflation dynamics, and consumer spending trends post-pandemic.
Central banks may delay easing policies due to strong economic growth and inflation trends.
The wealth effect and positive business behavior indicate potential upside surprises in global economic growth.
Deep dives
Global Economic Growth Expectations and Potential Delay in Central Bank Actions
There is a debate surrounding the delayed expectations of central banks to ease monetary policies due to strong economic growth. With data revealing potential delays in central banks' actions based on growth news and inflation trends, questions arise about the accuracy of growth estimates.
Impact of Wealth Effects and Business Sector Behavior on Economic Momentum
The resurgence of the wealth effect and business sector behavior are influencing economic momentum positively. The wealth effect, displaying broad-based strength across various asset classes, is linked to stronger consumer spending. Additionally, business sentiment and behavior, highlighted by increasing profits and CAPX indicators, signal a gradual recovery and hint at sustained growth.
Expectations for Stronger Than Anticipated Global Economic Growth and Business Sentiment
Amid predictions of a stronger global economy and improved business sentiment, indicators suggest potential upside surprises in growth. Despite concerns about cooling factors, such as fading transitory supports, burgeoning data and surveys point towards a global economy gaining momentum, fostering a positive outlook for growth prospects.
Another week of stronger-than-expected growth data now has first-quarter global GDP tracking roughly a %-point above trend, similar to the robust outcome posted last year. Expectations remain for a deceleration but are we missing something more inherently robust? If so, what would that mean for inflation and how would central banks react?