Freakonomics Radio Why Your Projects Are Always Late — and What to Do About It (Ep. 323 Replay)
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Apr 27, 2023 Discover why your projects often face delays and budget overruns. Explore the infamous Second Avenue subway project as a case study in chronic delays. Learn about the planning fallacy and how cognitive biases, like optimism and overconfidence, can skew your timelines. Gain insights on effective time management strategies and the importance of realistic expectations. Delve into unintended consequences in project management and how data-driven approaches can mitigate inefficiencies. Turn your project challenges into successes!
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Planning Fallacy Definition
- The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate project completion times, even with past experience.
- This happens due to an "inside approach" focusing on idealized scenarios and neglecting potential problems.
Thesis Study
- In a study, honors thesis students estimated their projects would take 33.9 days.
- In reality, it took them 55.5 days, a 64% overage, demonstrating the planning fallacy.
Inside Approach and Optimism Bias
- People tend to use an "inside approach," focusing on the specific project details, leading to oversimplified plans.
- This is coupled with an optimism bias, where we plan for success and ignore potential setbacks.