BiggerPockets Money Podcast Are We Heading Into a Recession? J Scott Breaks It Down
17 snips
Jul 29, 2025 This week, real estate expert J Scott joins the conversation to dissect the current economic landscape. With a keen eye on GDP and consumer spending, he highlights the challenges posed by rising bankruptcies and gig economy jobs. The discussion reveals how traditional metrics may mislead us about a potential recession and the increasing complexities surrounding real estate investments. J also explores the transformative effects of AI on productivity and employment, stressing the importance of diversifying investments in these uncertain times.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
No Clear Recession Definition
- There is no official formal government definition of a recession with clear checkboxes.
- Commonly, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are considered a recession, but official declarations often lag or are retroactive.
Mixed Employment and Spending Signals
- Employment data shows mixed signals: unemployment is low with wage growth above inflation.
- However, labor participation is declining and consumer spending growth is slowing, indicating economic softening.
Small Business Bankruptcies Rise
- Small businesses are filing for bankruptcy at higher rates due to prolonged high interest rates.
- Tariffs have increased import costs, impacting businesses relying on foreign manufacturing and imports.
