The Best Ever CRE Show JF3860: Economic Uncertainty, Inflation Risks, and the Real Estate Outlook ft. John Silvia
Mar 30, 2025
John Silvia, former chief economist of Wells Fargo and the U.S. Banking Committee, shares his insights on economic uncertainty and inflation risks. He addresses concerns like slowing consumer spending and potential recession indicators. Silvia discusses the implications of new tariffs on inflation and consumer confidence, while predicting possible rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. He highlights investment opportunities in commercial real estate, painting a cautiously optimistic picture for the next few years amidst the economic challenges.
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Economic Uncertainty
- Consumer spending has slowed, and inflation remains high.
- This points to a potential negative GDP print in Q1 2025 and a constrained Fed.
Q1 GDP and Imports
- Q1 GDP negativity is largely due to pre-tariff imports.
- The rest of 2025 might be positive, but overall growth will likely slow down.
Tariff Uncertainty
- New tariffs, especially on autos, create significant uncertainty.
- The on-again, off-again nature of tariffs makes planning difficult.