Economist Podcasts Forewarned before armed: how to predict war
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Jul 26, 2023 
Rosie Bloor, International China correspondent, offers insights on China's military strategies, particularly regarding Taiwan. Sophie Petter, Paris bureau chief, discusses France's shift in NATO and EU dynamics, altering European security. Paul Markilley, Innovation editor, sheds light on the evolving scrapyard industry, highlighting its transformation into efficient disassembly lines. The conversation dives into subtle market signals that may indicate impending conflicts and how geopolitical shifts influence defense policies.
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Cold War Tactic
- A KGB officer counted lights in the British Ministry of Defense to predict nuclear attacks.
- This Cold War tactic highlights the difficulty of predicting military actions.
Predicting Conflict: Art Over Science
- Predicting conflicts is more of an art than a science, as different information exists.
- Uncertainty clouds predictions, even with warning signs like in Ukraine.
Market Movements as Indicators
- Observing market movements can help predict Chinese actions.
- China's dependence on imports and state-owned commodity trading makes markets reflect government intentions.