Predicting Military Conflicts: Insights and Indicators

This chapter explores the challenges of forecasting military actions, focusing on the rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the possibility of China invading Taiwan. It emphasizes the role of market behaviors and resource management as indicators of countries' military preparedness, particularly in China’s strategic energy and food stockpiling practices. Although potential indicators of conflict are discussed, the chapter concludes that there is no immediate indication of a military invasion of Taiwan.