Global Data Pod Weekender: Three points make a trend
Apr 12, 2024
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Economic analysts Joseph Lupton and Michael Hanson discuss the risks of persistent inflation and potential scenarios of a soft landing or recession. They analyze the recent CPI report, Fed policy, interest rate hikes, and central bank challenges in balancing inflation concerns with economic growth stimulation.
Challenges of a high-for-long soft landing with strong growth and elevated inflation pose risks to global economy.
Impact of persistent high inflation on market expectations, leading to cautious Fed stance and revised rate cut projections.
Deep dives
The New High-for-Long Soft Landing Scenario
The podcast discusses a new economic scenario called the high-for-long soft landing where rates remain high but the economy shows resilience to sustain these rates. This perspective challenges the traditional view that high rates inevitably lead to a recession. The likelihood of this scenario is estimated at around 30%, indicating a shift in how the global economy may evolve
Inflation Concerns and Market Response
The discussion highlights concerns regarding persistent high inflation and its impact on the market. Recent CPI reports have shown elevated inflation rates, leading to a cautious stance by Fed officials and revisions in market expectations of future rate cuts. The focus on core service inflation and housing prices presents challenges amidst strong fundamentals and labor markets globally
Diversity in Global Monetary Policy
The podcast touches upon the potential challenges arising from varied global monetary policy responses to economic conditions. Central banks in different regions may face dilemmas in synchronization with the Fed's monetary policy due to currency sensitivities and implications for capital flows. This diversity could lead to prolonged tighter global monetary policy, impacting the overall economic landscape
Strong growth alongside elevated inflation raises risks of both a high-for-long soft landing and a boil-the-frog higher-for-longer hard landing. Stronger-than-expected US CPI for a third straight month pushes out pricing of Fed cuts. Spillover to risk markets and to the rest of global monetary policy poses a risk to the expansion.