Global Data Pod
Global Data Pod Weekender: Three points make a trend
Apr 12, 2024
Economic analysts Joseph Lupton and Michael Hanson discuss the risks of persistent inflation and potential scenarios of a soft landing or recession. They analyze the recent CPI report, Fed policy, interest rate hikes, and central bank challenges in balancing inflation concerns with economic growth stimulation.
21:58
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Quick takeaways
- Challenges of a high-for-long soft landing with strong growth and elevated inflation pose risks to global economy.
- Impact of persistent high inflation on market expectations, leading to cautious Fed stance and revised rate cut projections.
Deep dives
The New High-for-Long Soft Landing Scenario
The podcast discusses a new economic scenario called the high-for-long soft landing where rates remain high but the economy shows resilience to sustain these rates. This perspective challenges the traditional view that high rates inevitably lead to a recession. The likelihood of this scenario is estimated at around 30%, indicating a shift in how the global economy may evolve
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