The Julia La Roche Show #318 Mike Green: Why $100,000 Is The New Poverty Line In America
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Dec 16, 2025 
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, discusses his viral analysis of America's real poverty line. He reveals that families earning $100,000-$140,000 are caught in the 'valley of death,' where benefits vanish before wages can compensate. Green highlights how rising childcare costs and outdated tax codes contribute to the financial struggles of young families. He predicts potential market crashes driven by passive investing and reflects on the broader implications of economic inequality, stressing the need for systemic reform.
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Official Poverty Line Is Outdated
- The official US poverty line ($31,200 for a family of four) is based on a 1960s food budget and no longer reflects modern living costs.
- Mike Green finds many young families need $100k–$140k to reach financial breathing room, far above the official line.
Benefit Cliffs Create A “Valley Of Death”
- Benefit cliffs create a "valley of death" where supports vanish before earnings fully replace them.
- Many households are worse off earning $100k than $40k because benefits fall away before cash income covers costs.
Childcare Is The Largest Hidden Cost
- Childcare is often the largest expense for young dual-income families and can consume 20–40% of income.
- High childcare costs are driven by regulation, labor intensity, certification, and insurance requirements.