Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 318 to break down his viral three-part series on America's real poverty line, revealing why families making $100,000-$140,000 are trapped in what he calls the "valley of death" - where government benefits are withdrawn before cash earnings can replace them. He explains how childcare costs, benefit cliffs, and tax code changes since the 1950s have made the American Dream nearly impossible for young families, why economists reacted so negatively to his work, and how the official poverty line ($31,200) is completely disconnected from reality. Green also discusses the implications for markets, predicting a 1929-style crash from passive investing flows, and shares what gives him hope: human potential and the power of free people over slaves.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
Links:
Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read
Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/
Timestamps
00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green
01:00 Genesis of the viral poverty line series and why the American Dream is breaking down
05:25 The Valley of Death and the benefit cliffs
06:21 The working poor
07:50 Childcare
09:10 $100,000 used to mean something different
12:10 The precarity line
13:10 How we got here: tax code changes and the gaslighting about taxes and the 1%
16:30 What's the solution?
18:01 Implications of fixing the problem
21:40 Why economists reacted so viscerally
24:18 Sentiment analysis
26:35 Revealing what academics have been missing
28:34 The affordability crisis vs inflation debate
31:35 We need a different framework for poverty
32:47 Where this is headed if nothing changes
34:45 Political implications
39:09 What Mike plans to do about it
40:35 Markets and passive investing momentum
46:41 Wrap up and where to find Mike Green
