S2E1: Understanding the Origins of Russian Grand Strategy
Mar 8, 2022
auto_awesome
Andrew Monaghan, an expert in Russian studies and Founding Director of the Russia Research Network, dives deep into the evolution of Russian grand strategy, especially in light of the Ukraine invasion. He discusses the significance of historical context in shaping contemporary strategies and warns against the pitfalls of historical analogies, like those with Hitler and the Cold War. Monaghan also unpacks the complex dynamics between Russia and China, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of global geopolitics influenced by both nations' ambitions.
Russian grand strategy has evolved since the mid-2000s, integrating Soviet-era elements while adapting to a changing global order.
Relying on historical analogies can obscure contemporary Russian behavior, limiting understanding of its complex strategic framework and ambitions.
Deep dives
Historical Context of Russian Grand Strategy
Understanding contemporary Russian grand strategy requires looking back to the mid-2000s, where the rebuilding of strategic principles took place, integrating elements from the Soviet era. The post-Cold War period provided a foundation for Russia's strategy, as its leaders inherited significant aspects of Soviet politics and infrastructure. This era marked a rebirth of Russian grand strategy, driven by foresight about the world order's evolution, including predictions of declining Western influence and the rise of powers like China and India. Notably, Russian leadership began outlining strategies as early as the Munich speech in 2007, indicating a long-term view that extends through to 2035.
Defining Russian Grand Strategy
Russian grand strategy involves shaping assumptions about international relations and formulating corresponding policies for execution. It is not merely about having a long-term plan; instead, it focuses on the ability of Russian leadership to implement that plan amidst internal challenges. Historical examples show that strategists often face difficulties in executing their intentions, and Russia's leadership has similarly struggled with implementation due to dysfunctionality within the government. This rebirth of grand strategy is characterized as a prolonged, flawed, yet persistent process towards strategic goals, reflected in Russia's rise from a diminished international presence in the early 2000s to a recognized global player by 2019.
The Role of Historical Analogies
Using historical analogies to interpret contemporary Russian behavior can be misleading, especially with comparisons to figures like Adolf Hitler or the concept of a new Cold War. These analogies limit critical thinking by framing the situation within narrow perspectives, ultimately hindering understanding of the fluidity and dynamism of international relations. Historical context is crucial, but reliance on these tropes overlooks the complexities and changes in Russia's strategic framework over time. Each period holds distinct challenges, and emphasizing the need for a careful approach to historical comparisons will enable a more nuanced understanding of current geopolitical contexts.
Russia's Global Geopolitical Engagement
Russia's involvement in various international conflicts and relationships illustrates its ambitions to position itself as an indispensable global player. With engagements in Syria, support for regimes like Kazakhstan, and relationships with private military companies, Russia seeks to assert its influence across multiple regions. This strategy reflects a broader aim of establishing partnerships and navigating the geopolitical landscape to secure national interests, adapting its approach as needed. The Kremlin's actions signal a long-term vision to maintain relevance in a shifting world order characterized by significant competition, especially involving rising powers like China.
Launching RUSI Journal Radio’s second season, hosts Demi, Emma and Ed discuss Russian grand strategy and its evolution over time with Andrew Monaghan, a Russian Studies expert.
Against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this episode reflects on the principles that underpin contemporary Russian strategy, Vladimir Putin’s political ascendancy, and the dangers of relying on historical analogies.
Andrew is Founding Director of the Russia Research Network, a Non-Resident Associate Fellow of the NATO Defense College, a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, and a George F Kennan Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode