How To Be Lucky (By Design)

51 snips

Oct 14, 2025

Judd Kessler, a Wharton School economist and author of 'Lucky by Design', delves into the mechanics of how luck can be engineered rather than just stumbled upon. He introduces the concept of hidden markets, where opportunities are shaped by invisible rules rather than mere prices. Discussing the three E's—efficiency, equity, and ease—Kessler shares strategies to enhance your chances in these markets. He also explores how AI is reshaping signaling, urging listeners to prepare and reduce friction to attract opportunities.

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ANECDOTE

Pet Rock Was Preparation, Not Chance

Gary Dahl's Pet Rock looked like a joke but sold over a million units because Dahl was prepared.
He studied consumer behavior and timed a satirical product to peak cultural taste.

INSIGHT

Hidden Markets Allocate More Than Price

Many allocations happen in hidden markets where price isn't the main allocator.
Understanding the rules of these systems turns apparent luck into strategy.

ADVICE

Use The Three E's To Judge Opportunity

Evaluate opportunities using the three E's: Efficiency, Equity, and Ease.
Design your approach to maximize value, fairness, and low ordeal cost.

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Episode 80: Lucky By Design – Show Notes

Is luck really just random, or can we engineer it? In this episode, we explore how “luck” is often the result of preparation, pattern recognition, and a deep understanding of hidden systems that shape opportunity. Drawing from the unlikely success story of Gary Dahl’s Pet Rock and the groundbreaking research of Wharton economist Judd Kessler and his new book Lucky By Design, we dig into the ways luck is built, not found.

Judd Kessler introduces his framework of “hidden markets,” where things like tickets, jobs, and creative opportunities aren’t always allocated by price or obvious mechanisms. Instead, they’re shaped by invisible rules that govern access and advantage. We discuss the “three E’s”—efficiency, equity, and ease—as the building blocks of these markets, and examine real strategies to decode the signals and systems at play.

Along the way, we unpack how showing up prepared, making it easy for others to work with us, and understanding the actual rules of the game can help leaders and creative professionals tilt the odds in their favor. We also take on the coming wave of AI-driven speed and automation, and ask what it means for authentic signaling in a world where bots are getting faster and smarter.

Five Key Learnings from the Episode:

Luck favors the prepared. What looks like serendipity is often the outgrowth of discipline, awareness, and the willingness to build a “door” for opportunity to knock on.
Hidden markets have hidden rules. Whether it’s a ticket lottery or landing a client, outcomes are shaped by underlying systems—not just price or “fairness.” Learn the rules, and you can play the game more strategically.
The three E’s—Efficiency, Equity, and Ease—are metrics for opportunity. Whether trying to get noticed, land a deal, or hire the right people, balancing these three helps you become the option others choose.
Reducing friction creates value. In creative and business relationships, being easy to work with and removing obstacles can be a more powerful signal than raw talent alone.
Signals matter more than ever in the age of AI. As automation makes it cheap and easy to fake enthusiasm or speed, genuine signals—like real relationships and proven follow-through—become even more vital.

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