Hidden Markets and Why Price Isn't Everything

Episode 80: Lucky By Design – Show Notes

Is luck really just random, or can we engineer it? In this episode, we explore how “luck” is often the result of preparation, pattern recognition, and a deep understanding of hidden systems that shape opportunity. Drawing from the unlikely success story of Gary Dahl’s Pet Rock and the groundbreaking research of Wharton economist Judd Kessler and his new book Lucky By Design, we dig into the ways luck is built, not found.

Judd Kessler introduces his framework of “hidden markets,” where things like tickets, jobs, and creative opportunities aren’t always allocated by price or obvious mechanisms. Instead, they’re shaped by invisible rules that govern access and advantage. We discuss the “three E’s”—efficiency, equity, and ease—as the building blocks of these markets, and examine real strategies to decode the signals and systems at play.

Along the way, we unpack how showing up prepared, making it easy for others to work with us, and understanding the actual rules of the game can help leaders and creative professionals tilt the odds in their favor. We also take on the coming wave of AI-driven speed and automation, and ask what it means for authentic signaling in a world where bots are getting faster and smarter.

Five Key Learnings from the Episode:

1. Luck favors the prepared. What looks like serendipity is often the outgrowth of discipline, awareness, and the willingness to build a “door” for opportunity to knock on.
2. Hidden markets have hidden rules. Whether it’s a ticket lottery or landing a client, outcomes are shaped by underlying systems—not just price or “fairness.” Learn the rules, and you can play the game more strategically.
3. The three E’s—Efficiency, Equity, and Ease—are metrics for opportunity. Whether trying to get noticed, land a deal, or hire the right people, balancing these three helps you become the option others choose.
4. Reducing friction creates value. In creative and business relationships, being easy to work with and removing obstacles can be a more powerful signal than raw talent alone.
5. Signals matter more than ever in the age of AI. As automation makes it cheap and easy to fake enthusiasm or speed, genuine signals—like real relationships and proven follow-through—become even more vital.

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