Future Commerce Deloitte Predicts A $1.7 Trillion Holiday Season
Oct 21, 2026
Brian McCarthy, a Deloitte strategy and analytics principal with 15+ years across retail, forecasts a $1.7 trillion holiday season. He explores why stretched shoppers keep spending strategically, how value now includes quality and durability, and what brands must do to appear in AI shopping recommendations. The conversation also examines nostalgia’s pull and why physical stores still capture most new holiday dollars.
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Holiday Growth Comes Mostly From Higher Prices
- Deloitte forecasts 4%–4.8% holiday sales growth, mostly from higher prices while unit volume stays relatively flat.
- Digital grows 7.5%–8.4%, but stores still expand 3.2%–3.9%; disposable income remains the stronger predictor than consumer mood.
Value Shopping Now Means More Than Cheap
- Value-seeking has become structural, not temporary, as shoppers evaluate durability, quality, features and private-label performance alongside price.
- Digital channels make switching retailers effortless, increasing competitive pressure when customers find better value elsewhere.
Prove Why Your Product Deserves Its Price
- Show why premium pricing is justified through lasting quality, better materials, style or meaningful product features.
- Treat strong private-label products as serious competition because shoppers increasingly trust their quality.