Holiday Growth Comes Mainly From Higher Prices

Stretched wallets are still spending. Deloitte projects up to 4.8% growth in holiday spending this year, driven mostly by price of goods rather than volume of sales. 

Shoppers say they feel stretched, yet they keep spending. Brian McCarthy, a principal in Deloitte’s strategy and analytics practice, joins Phillip and Alicia to forecast this year’s holiday spending. Brian explains why behavior outweighs sentiment, how AI shopping agents are changing the way people find products, and why physical stores still bring in most of the new holiday dollars.

The Store Stays

Key takeaways:

• Deloitte projects 4% to 4.8% holiday growth, driven mostly by price rather than volume.
• Behavior beats sentiment: anxious shoppers still spend, just more strategically.
• Value-seeking is a lasting change: shoppers now weigh durability, quality and private label.
• To show up in AI shopping agents’ picks, brands need detailed, well-structured product data.
• Digital sales are growing, but in-store sales still bring in most new holiday dollars. 
• “Behavior holds stronger than sentiment when it comes to holiday.” — Brian McCarthy
• “We’re seeing that sentiment shift not towards spending less, but towards spending more strategically, more thoughtfully, more intelligently.” — Brian McCarthy
• “We hear ‘value’ and we immediately think cost savings. But… that’s not always the case.” — Alicia Esposito
• “From tradition, nostalgia – holiday spending is still dominantly in store.” — Brian McCarthy

In-Show Mentions:

• Just released: Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey
• Check out Deloitte’s first Halloween study
• Review Deloitte’s 2026 Back-to-School Survey

Associated Links:

• The 2025 Holiday Reality Check (Ep. 429, with Deloitte)
• The BFCM Sprint: Last-Minute Tips and Tactics from Deloitte
• Separating Real Signals from the Noise (Ep. 480)
• BFCM 2025: We Give Thanks for Couch Commerce
• Agentic Commerce and the eCommerce Site’s New Existential Crisis
• The Concierge Economy: Understanding AI's True Role in the Shopping Experience
• The Alpha Effect: How Gen Alpha is Redefining Back-to-School Spending
• Member Brief: Return on Experience and the New KPIs of Store Design
• Check out Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

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