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The podcast discusses the current market conditions and their implications for value investors. The speaker explains that various metrics indicate the market is overvalued and shares insights on the impact of interest rates and inflation on asset prices. The speaker suggests that historically, periods of high valuations, rising interest rates, and inflation have led to significant market crashes and subsequent periods of low returns. While the short-term performance of the stock market is unpredictable, the speaker believes there is a reasonable chance of a market downturn and advises caution. However, the speaker also highlights that the wide spread between overvalued and undervalued companies presents an opportunity for deep value investors despite the overall market conditions.
The conversation explores the future opportunities and potential of value investing, especially in relation to the current market environment. The speaker acknowledges that as more investors compete in the value space, finding undervalued opportunities becomes more challenging. However, the speaker argues that opportunities always exist because markets are driven by irrational behavior. While the market as a whole may be overvalued, there is a wide gap between the most overvalued and most undervalued companies. The speaker believes that value investing can still generate good returns by focusing on companies with strong cash flow, effective capital allocation strategies, and a long history of operation. The speaker further encourages investors to think like business owners and look for companies that prioritize shareholder value.
The podcast delves into the importance of share buybacks and quality considerations in the deep value investing strategy. The speaker notes that while share buybacks can be detrimental when done at high valuations, they can significantly enhance shareholder value when executed at undervalued prices. Buybacks concentrate the value by reducing the share count, allowing shareholders to own a larger portion of the business. The speaker emphasizes the significance of cash flow and appreciates management teams that allocate capital wisely, either through buybacks or other value-enhancing activities. Additionally, the speaker highlights the need to look beyond simple valuation metrics and consider factors like cash flow, capital allocation, and management's attitude toward shareholders when identifying quality companies for deep value investments.
Facebook's success provides an example of ignoring conventional wisdom and focusing on the financial statements. Despite falling from $150 to $90, the company's strong financials and growth potential led to significant returns for investors.
Value investing strategies rely on the concept of mean reversion, wherein undervalued stocks eventually see their multiples expand and their businesses grow. The historical performance of value portfolios supports this approach, with returns peaking in the first year and gradually diminishing over time. While finding long-term high-performing companies can be challenging, investing in undervalued stocks with the potential to revert to fair value can offer favorable returns.
Robert Leonard chats with Tobias Carlisle about the global economy, market assessment, value investing opportunities, mean reversion trades, quality assessment in deep value strategies, using screeners, and more!
Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®. He is also the founder of Acquirers Funds® which manages ZIG, the Acquirers Fund, and DEEP, the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value Fund.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
01:33 - His current assessment of the global economy and markets.
08:59 - Why he thinks the current market conditions create a favorable set up for value investors going forward?
20:32 - How long a mean reversion trade typically takes and how this differs from a time horizon of a quality investor.
24:39 - How to use his screeners and find companies that are cheap on an acquirer’s multiple basis?
44:39 - How an assessment of quality plays a role in a deep value strategy.
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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