The Overvaluation of the Stock Market

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I like these very long term metrics, like the Shiller PE, which adjusts for the business cycle and inflation adjusts the earnings. And all of those metrics say that we're very overvalued. When you lower interest rates, Buffett says it acts like gravity on assets. We're in this hiking cycle in the States. Central banks don't like hiking. The reason that they hike is because inflation is worse than hiking. It's an extremely regressive tax. So it's necessary to hike, to stop the runaway inflation. But if you look historically, what happens when the market starts falling and central banks start cutting? I suspect we're sort of in the back end now of this drawdown

Robert Leonard chats with Tobias Carlisle about the global economy, market assessment, value investing opportunities, mean reversion trades, quality assessment in deep value strategies, using screeners, and more!

Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®. He is also the founder of Acquirers Funds® which manages ZIG, the Acquirers Fund, and DEEP, the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value Fund.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

01:33 - His current assessment of the global economy and markets.

08:59 - Why he thinks the current market conditions create a favorable set up for value investors going forward?

20:32 - How long a mean reversion trade typically takes and how this differs from a time horizon of a quality investor.

24:39 - How to use his screeners and find companies that are cheap on an acquirer’s multiple basis?

44:39 - How an assessment of quality plays a role in a deep value strategy.

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
Tobias Carlisle’s book The Acquirer’s Multiple.
Tobias Carlisle’s book Deep Value.
Tobias Carlisle’s book Quantitative Value.
The Acquirer’s Podcast.
The Acquirer’s Multiple.
The Acquirer’s Fund.
Related Episode: Listen to MI025: Deep Value Investing w/ Tobias Carlisle or watch the video.
Related Episode: Listen to MI084: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, And Berkshire Hathaway w/ Adam Mead or watch the video.

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