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On Investing

Do Tariffs Change the Economic Outlook? (With Phil Mackintosh)

Feb 21, 2025
Phil Mackintosh, chief economist at Nasdaq, shares his insights on navigating the unique post-pandemic economic cycle. He discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation and global trade, emphasizing the need for diversification in investment strategies. Mackintosh explores the roles of the Federal Reserve and immigration on the labor force, while examining the transformative effects of AI on productivity and corporate profitability. He also highlights the challenges for small-cap companies amid rising costs and interest rates, offering a comprehensive outlook on economic opportunities and risks.
50:41

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Tariffs can adversely impact growth in foreign trade-dependent sectors like agriculture, necessitating a careful consideration of trade policies.
  • Recent market trends indicate a shift towards value stocks over growth sectors, suggesting an increasing importance of individual company fundamentals.

Deep dives

Impact of Trade Policy and Tariffs

Trade policy and tariffs significantly affect economic conditions, with potential adverse effects on growth, especially in sectors reliant on foreign trade. While some tariffs are perceived as negotiating tools, their long-term implications might harm specific industries, particularly agriculture, which is already feeling the weight of decreased aid. Despite these tensions, the U.S. dollar remains strong, and the Treasury market is stable, indicating investor confidence in the U.S. economy's ability to manage debt obligations. Investors are urged to focus on diversification as a strategy to combat the uncertainties that arise from trade policy changes.

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