On Investing

Do Tariffs Change the Economic Outlook? (With Phil Mackintosh)

8 snips
Feb 21, 2025
Phil Mackintosh, chief economist at Nasdaq, shares his insights on navigating the unique post-pandemic economic cycle. He discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation and global trade, emphasizing the need for diversification in investment strategies. Mackintosh explores the roles of the Federal Reserve and immigration on the labor force, while examining the transformative effects of AI on productivity and corporate profitability. He also highlights the challenges for small-cap companies amid rising costs and interest rates, offering a comprehensive outlook on economic opportunities and risks.
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INSIGHT

Current State of the US Economy

  • The US economy is near full employment with controlled inflation.
  • The debate focuses on whether interest rates will fall to a neutral, non-contractionary level.
INSIGHT

Tariff Effects on Supply Chains

  • Tariffs cause supply chain shifts, impacting various countries' economies.
  • Companies adjust to minimize cost increases, lessening inflation's impact.
ANECDOTE

Soybean Tariff Impact

  • China placed retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans after Trump imposed tariffs.
  • Consequently, US soybean sales halved, benefiting Brazil instead.
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