Do Tariffs Change the Economic Outlook? (With Phil Mackintosh)
On Investing
Navigating Economic Uncertainty: The Case for Diversification
This chapter explores the necessity of diversification in investment strategies, especially amid economic challenges. It delves into the impacts of tariffs on inflation and the broader implications for global trade, using real-world examples to highlight the complexities faced by investors and consumers.
In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders start out by discussing the latest developments in economic policy and tariffs. They also cover the latest inflation readings and their implications on the dollar and the Treasury market. Then, Liz Ann sits down with Phil Mackintosh, chief economist and senior vice president at Nasdaq.
They discuss the unique economic cycle in the U.S., post-pandemic, focusing on the interplay between micro- and macroeconomics. Mackintosh explains his thoughts on the role of tariffs, the Federal Reserve's current policy, immigration's impact on the labor force, and the outlook for profit margins and earnings. Phil and Liz Ann also examine the influence of AI on productivity, the performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks, and the challenges faced by small-cap companies. Finally, Mackintosh shares insights on valuation in a growth-oriented economy and outlines the risks and opportunities that lie ahead.
You can read Phil Mackintosh's weekly newsletter, Market Makers, on Nasdaq.com.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.
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Important Disclosures
The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.
The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.
Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.
Currency trading is speculative, volatile and not suitable for all investors.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.
Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.
All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.
The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies primarily involved in the design, distribution, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors.
Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.
The Sahm rule is triggered when the three-month average U.S. unemployment rate rises by 0.50% or more from its 12-month low, which indicates a recession is underway.
The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.
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